Election latest: Reform move within point of Tories in new poll - as Farage says bus attack 'affront to democracy' (2024)

Until voters go to the polls on 4 July, the Politics Hub will be looking back at some memorable moments from previous general election campaigns.

It's 1992 - and Labour's Neil Kinnock is facing John Major.

A week out from the vote, and the opposition thinks it is on track to finally re-enter Downing Street after more than a decade out of power.

Thousands of the party faithful gathered at Sheffield Arena for a huge rally.

Amid rampant cheering and applause, Mr Kinnock bellowed what was reported to be the phrase "we're alright!"

This was taken to be him signalling Labour would be winning - a sign of complacency and overconfidence.

His party went on to lose to Mr Major's Tories, and Mr Kinnock resigned as party leader.

He has since argued he was actually saying "well alright" in an attempt to get the crowd to listen to him.

Previous entry: The Ed Stone

Whether Conservatives judge the 2024 manifesto a success rather depends on their definition of success.

For some, it will be enough that Rishi Sunak hasn't exploded his campaign in quite the way Theresa May did with her pledge to impose extra taxes on people to pay for social care in 2017.

And some will be pleased that unlike Liz Truss, he has not sought to introduce unfunded tax cuts (even if there are a fair few question marks about how reliable his revenue numbers are).

But for anyone looking for a game-changing moment of economic bravery, this was not it.

The Conservatives are planning to cut taxes by £17.2bn. They also plan to increase spending by around £800m.

And they plan to pay for that by cutting welfare spending by £12bn and squeezing an extra £6bn out of tax avoiders.

There are some pretty big question marks over whether that money can be raised as easily as the manifesto implies.

There are also some other question marks buried deeper in the Tory manifesto. For instance, that relatively small spending increase is actually a net number, dependent on some pretty big spending cuts.

But broadly speaking, it's going too far to accuse this government of trying to inflict another Truss-style unfunded mini-budget on the UK.

This is significantly less radical than that. Indeed, the problem for many Conservatives is likely to be that it isn't radical enough.

As Rishi Sunak was winding up his manifesto launch at a metaphor-heavy Silverstone racetrack, the scale of the PM’s task in the remainder of the election campaign was becoming clear.

According to the exclusive Sky News/YouGov poll, he needs to shift through the gears pretty quickly, or he's in danger of dropping to the bottom rung of the podium.

He was speaking hours before it emerged voting intention for the Conservatives had dropped to 18%, one point ahead of Nigel Farage's Reform UK on 17% - tantalisingly close to a crossover.

A third of 2019 Tory voters - the cohort that endorsed Boris Johnson - now say they will switch to Reform.

And the proportion who think Mr Sunak will be a good PM is down two points to 22%, possibly down to his decision to leave D-Day early.

The drop in Labour's vote - three points to 38% - will do little to cheer a Tory party in the doldrums, consumed with their own existential angst.

This is because the switch seems to match the Lib Dems jumping four points to 15% - much of the YouGov fieldwork was done when their manifesto was receiving peak coverage.

The question is whether the Tory manifesto launch could possibly have provided anything new with which to turn things around from a position as dire as any in living memory.

Read more from Sam below:

Shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves has held a news conference to attack the Conservatives' manifesto this afternoon.

"The money's not there," was the message, as she accused Rishi Sunak of "gaslighting" the public with his tax cut promises.

She claimed the plans would up mortgages by £4,800, comparing the potential fallout to the Truss mini-budget which saw interest rates soar.

Tory promises 'will lead to higher mortgages'

Ms Reeves claimed Labour had found £71bn in "unfunded commitments over the course of the next parliament" in the document, which the Conservatives launched at Silverstone earlier today.

"We know where these sorts of unfunded promises from Conservative prime ministers lead," she said.

"They lead to higher mortgages, leaving you and your family worse off."

When it comes to what Labour would do if they win on 4 July, she reiterated a pledge not to raise national insurance, income tax or VAT.

"We will only cut taxes when the money is there," she added.

Our weeknight politics showPolitics Hub With Sophy Ridgewill be live on Sky News from 7pm.

The fast-paced programme dissects the inner workings of Westminster, with interviews, insights, and analysis - bringing you, the audience, into the corridors of power.

Joining Sophy tonight is Tory cabinet minister Lucy Frazer to discuss her party's manifesto launch earlier today, and from Labour it's shadow chief Treasury secretaryDarren Jones.

On Sophy's panel tonight are:

• Ash Sarkar, contributing editor at Novara Media;
• Guto Harri, Boris Johnson's former communications director.

Watch live on Sky News, in the stream at the top of this page, and follow live updates here in the Politics Hub.

WatchPolitics Hubfrom 7pm every night during the election campaign on Sky channel 501, Virgin channel 602, Freeview channel 233, on theSky News websiteandappor onYouTube.

Our latest exclusive voting intention poll from YouGov has just dropped, showing the Conservatives have fallen to 18% - down one point on last week.

The survey was carried out throughout Monday and also on Tuesday morning - ahead of their manifesto launch today.

And with Reform going up by one point this week to 17%, Nigel Farage's outfit are hot on their heels.

Labour is still racing ahead with a 20-point lead on 38%, but have lost three points over the past week.

There's good news for the Liberal Democrats, who have seen a four-point rise in their polling numbers to 15% - perhaps helped by the focus on their manifesto launch and list of policies to kick off the week.

The Greens also saw a one-point increase to 8% as they seek to secure a handful of seats after 4 July.

When it comes to whether Rishi Sunak is a good prime minister, just 22% said yes - down another two points - while 70% said he was bad.

And on Sir Keir Starmer's prospects in the job, 34% said they think he will do well - up one point - while 49% think he would do badly - up two points.

By Faye Brown, political reporter

Jeremy Corbyn has hit back at Sir Keir Starmer's attack on his manifestos, calling them "fully costed proposals".

Earlier, Sir Keir accused the Tories of building a "Jeremy Corbyn-style manifesto" that will "load everything into the wheelbarrow" without explaining how to pay for it (see 11am post).

That's despite Sir Keir being in Mr Corbyn's shadow cabinet for the 2017 and 2019 elections, and endorsing both manifestos.

Mr Corbyn told Sky News they were "fully costed proposals that would have redistributed wealth and power".

He said: "If (they) were implemented, energy companies wouldn't be making record profits while millions of people suffer in poverty.

"A billionaire wouldn't be purchasing Royal Mail. There wouldn't be raw sewage in our rivers and seas. 250,000 people wouldn't be homeless. We wouldn't be wasting public money on private health contracts.

"And we would be way ahead in the green investment that is needed to tackle the climate crisis."

Mr Corbyn went on to say the "crises we face today are even more pressing and severe" than when he was Labour leader, "and they require a fundamental shake-up of our economic and political system."

Pointing to his campaign to be an independent MP for Islington North, having lost the Labour whip, he said: "If I am re-elected as their MP, I will continue to speak up for the real change that is needed to tackle the crises facing us all."

Other candidates in the constituency are:

• Vikas Aggarwal, Lib Dems;
• Karen Anne Harries, Conservatives;
• Paul Dominic Josling, independent;
• Sheridan Kates, Greens;
• Praful Nargund, Labour;
• Martyn Nelson, Reform.

Nigel Farage has been talking to Sky News after having objects thrown at him by protesters.

After having a milkshake chucked over him in Clacton last week, today he's been pelted while on an open-top bus in Barnsley.

He tells our political correspondent Gurpreet Narwanthe perpetrator's actions were "an affront to the very idea of democratic debate".

"I'm not a softy. You can say what you blooming like to me," he said.

"When people start chucking cement at me or starting chucking stones at me, it's very, very different."

The Reform UK leader also calls it a "wilful attempt" to stop him taking part in the general election, adding: "That is just plain wrong at every level."

But he insists it won't change him or the way he campaigns.

'No place for violence'

Home Secretary James Cleverley has since criticised the incident on social media.

"There must be no place for violence and intimidation in our politics and these actions should be condemned by everyone," he tweeted.

"Thanks to the police for their quick action to detain the suspect."

Business minister Kevin Hollinrake has defended the Tories' tax record, insisting what was announced in their manifesto is "significant".

Speaking to Sky News, he said the party has "been very clear" that taxes went up because "we had to pump so much money into the economy" to "get people through" the COVID and energy crises.

Tories want long-term sick 'back into work'

But he said the Conservatives are now cutting taxes, claiming the average worker would save £1,350 a year - and that self-employed people would be taken out of national insurance altogether.

Pointed out to him that the tax burden would still be the highest since the 1940s, Mr Hollinrake attempts to point the finger at Labour, claiming they would increase taxes while the Tories plan to cut them.

And he stands by the decision to make savings in welfare payments to cover the reductions, adding: "We've seen a big increase in the number of people off long-term sick, many of those being mental health problems."

He said the Tories were "keen to put measures in place to help those people back into work".

The Conservatives have released their election manifesto - and we've scoured their policy pledges so you don't have to.

Scroll to the right in the interactive tool below to find out what the party has promised to do if they win the election.

We will produce a breakdown of all the other parties' manifestos here when they are announced - you can find the ones we've done so far in the key points above.